Summary
The outcome, and the numbers behind it.
How it plays out
Hover any chart to read that year’s values.
How sure can you be
The same simulation, run hundreds of times with the unknowable rates redrawn.
What would change it
Where the recommendation flips, and which assumptions decide it.
Year by year
The full arithmetic behind the recommendation.
Scenarios
Saved in this browser. Compare any two side by side.